BY: GILBERT VAN KERCKHOVE
Adviser for Foreign Trade - Belgium
President of China Strategy Limited

Presentation given in Brussels on 27 March 2001 to the Belgian Nuclear Society in the "Diamant Building". The presentation was also attended by representatives of the Chinese Embassy in Brussels.
The following text is adapted from the original slide presentation. At the end of the presentation is the update on the Chinese economy, distributed to the audience.

PRESENTATION MATERIAL:

• HARBIN - GUANGZHOU = BRUSSELS TO MOSCOW OR TURKEY OR LIBYA
• IN 20 YEARS CHINA HAS GONE THROUGH A TREMENDOUS DEVELOPMENT
• WHAT TOOK EUROPE HUNDRED YEARS CHINA DOES IT IN A DECADE
• WTO WILL ACCELERATE EVEN MORE COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT, DEREGULATION, PRIVATIZATION, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, STREAMLINING OF THE ECONOMY
• THE POWER INDUSTRY: ONE OF THE SECTORS GOING THROUGH CONTINUOUS ADJUSTMENT,
• BUT THE PACE OF REFORM REMAINS UNCLEAR - THE CALIFORNIA CRISIS RAISES QUESTIONS

SOME BASIC FIGURES FOR 2000

• CHINA'S GDP TOPPED US$ 1,000 BILLION (+8%) (TO DOUBLE BY 2010)
• CHINA: A "CONTINENT" WITH 1.3 BILLION PEOPLE
• OFFICIALLY EMPLOYED: 711.5 (212.74 IN URBAN AREAS)
• USED FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: US$ 40.7 BILLION (+ US$ 400 MILLION)
• TRADE SURPLUS: US$ 24.1 BILLION (- US$ 5.1 BILLION)
• FOREIGN RESERVES AT YEAREND: US$ 165.6 BILLION (+ US$ 10.9 BILLION)
• INFLATION (CPI): 0.4%

PLANNED FOR 2001

• RECORD DEFICIT PLANNED: US$ 31.28 BILLION (+ 4%) (2.7% OF PROJECTED GDP - FAIRLY MODEST)
• CENTRAL & LOCAL GOVERNMENTS TO SPEND 1.74 TRILLION YUAN
• CENTRAL & LOCAL GOVERNMENTS TO TAKE IN 1.48 TRILLION YUAN IN TAXES & OTHER REVENUE
• INCREASED FUNDS TO DEVELOP THE WESTERN REGIONS (RAILWAYS, ROADS, HYDRO POWER, GAS PIPELINES, POWER TRANSMISSION)
• GDP GROWTH FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS TO BE AROUND 7%

INSTALLED CAPACITY

• END 1999: OVER 290 GW, PASSING 300 GW IN APRIL 2000

• 100 GW IN 1987, 200 GW IN 1995
• ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH OF 11%
• SECOND WORLDWIDE
• 1999 NATIONWIDE INVESTMENT: 165.7 BILLION YUAN (AROUND US$ 20 BILLION)
• 1996-1999 INVESTMENT: ABOUT US$ 73. 5 BILLION
• IN 1999 NEW INSTALLED: 21.5 GW (+7.7%)
  BEING 7.91 GW HYDRO
  13.55 GW THERMAL
  1,06 GW REPLACEMENT OF SMALLER UNITS
• BREAKDOWN (1999): THERMAL 223.43 GW 74.8%
  HYDRO 72.97 GW 24.4%
  NUCLEAR 2.1 GW 0.7%
• FORECAST 2005: TOTAL: 355 GW 100%
  HYDRO 87 GW 24.5% (95 GW - 27%)
  THERMAL 257 GW 72.4%
  NUCLEAR 8.5 GW 2.4%
  RENEWABLE 2.5 GW 0.7%
• PROJECTED TOTAL IN 2010: 436 GW, IN 2015: 540 GW (GROWTH 7 TO 8%)

PRODUCTION

• 1,233 TWH IN 1999 (+ 6.5%) - ABOUT 980 KWH/CAPITA (STILL VERY LOW)
• ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH OF 12%
• SECOND WORLDWIDE
• BREAKDOWN (1999) THERMAL 1,004.7 TWH 81.5%
  HYDRO 212.9 TWH 17.2%
  NUCLEAR 14.8 TWH 1.2%

CONSUMPTION (1999)

• AFTER A SLOWDOWN IN 1998, STRONGER GROWTH AGAIN IN 1999/2000, IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTION FROM RURAL AREAS, ALSO DOMESTIC USE
• SALES PRICE SEEMS LOW BUT IS ONE OF THE HIGHEST IN THE WORLD IF COMPARED TO GDP
• PATTERN
  HEAVY INDUSTRY 57.5% RESIDENTIAL 12.2%
  TRANSPORT, TELECOM 2.0% MUNICIPAL & COMMERCIAL 10.0%
  LIGHT INDUSTRY 14.4% AGRICULTURE 4.0%

GENERAL TRENDS, INCLUDING HIGHLIGHTS 10TH FIVE YEAR PLAN (2001-2005)

• SHIFT TO LARGER GENERATING UNITS, HIGHER EFFICIENCY, LESS POLLUTION
• DEACTIVATING SMALLER UNITS (POLLUTION, INEFFICIENT, NOT SYNCHRONIZED) (< 50 MW)
• AFTER STOP TO NEW PROJECTS, RENEWED GROWTH WILL FORCE NEW CAPACITY
• GROWTH OF POWER CAPACITY RECENTLY LOWER THAN FOR THE GDP: MORE ENERGY SAVINGS IN THE INDUSTRY, UNMATCHED POWER SUPPLY AND DEMAND TO BE SOLVED.
• ENERGY SHORTAGES COULD BECOME MORE OF A PROBLEM IF NEW PROJECTS DO NOT COME ON LINE IN TIME
• IMPROVE TRANSMISSION (LOCAL & LONG-DISTANCE) TO BALANCE PRODUCTION/CONSUMPTION
• SHIFT TO FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN REGIONS
• DEVELOPMENT OF "RENEWABLE ENERGIES" (E.G. WIND POWER)
• REFORM OF THE POWER SECTOR (ORGANIZATION)
• LESS COAL, MORE GAS & HYDRO
• IMPROVE COAL MINES AND COAL PROCESSING
• "SENDING POWER FROM WEST TO EAST": FOR HYDRO - THERMAL - GAS
• MORE OPEN CRITICISM FOR PROJECTS WHERE "QUESTIONS" REMAIN UNANSWERED - E.G. THREE GORGES
• EXPERIMENT STARTED IN SHANGHAI WITH DAY / NIGHT TARIFFS (6 AM - 10 PM)
• ENERGY CONSERVATION PROGRAMS IN LARGE ENERGY CONSUMING INDUSTRIES

THE REFORM OF THE ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY

• GOAL: MORE COMPETITION BETWEEN GENERATION GROUPS - LOWER PRICES (-20%)
• COMPETITION ON ENERGY PRICES BY PRODUCTION UNITS: CAPACITY AT LEAST 50MW (BIDDING PROCESS TO SUPPLY POWER TO THE GRID)
• EXISTING POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENTS TO REMAIN VALID - FOR THE MOMENT
• CALIFORNIA MESS MAKES THEE GOVERNMENT THINK AGAIN ON HOW TO IMPLEMENT REFORMS
• CHINA LOOKING A LOT TO REFORMS IN SOUTH AMERICAN (SIMILAR ECONOMIES)
• SEPARATION REGULATORY BODIES - POWER INDUSTRY
• SEPARATION GENERATION - TRANSMISSION
• REDUCE "ILLEGAL" TAXES TO THE CONSUMER
• REDUCE INEQUALITY IN PRICING BETWEEN URBAN CENTERS AND RURAL AREAS
• REDUCE DISPARITY BETWEEN REGIONS WITH EXCESS PRODUCTION AND WITH SHORTAGES
• MORE LARGE NATIONAL GROUPS
• STATE POWER CORPORATION & PROVINCIAL COMPANIES TO DISINVEST +/- 130 GW TILL 2010
• STATE POWER CORPORATION TO KEEP MAINLY "REGULATING UNITS" (PEAK POWER, HYDRO, PUMPED STORAGE) AS WELL AS NETWORK
• DISINVESTMENTS: COMPLICATED DUE TO COMPLEX AND MURKY OWNERSHIP STRUCTURES
• IN PRINCIPLE NO GROUP TO CONTROL MORE THAN 30% OF INSTALLED CAPACITY IN CHINA
• GENERAL IMPLEMENTATION TO BE DIFFICULT DUE TO LOCAL OPPOSITION AND TYPICAL CHINESE LACK OF TRANSPARENCY

PROBLEMS

• LOCAL ABUSES ARE PLENTY - CENTRAL DIRECTIVES OFTEN IGNORED
• EXCESSES BY LOCAL POWER BUREAUS, ILLEGAL CHARGES
• PREFERENTIAL USE OF POWER GENERATED BY "FRIENDS", KILLING SOME EXISTING VENTURES WHO FAIL TO SELL SUFFICIENT POWER FROM THEIR POWER PLANTS
• RESISTANCE FROM LOCAL GOVERNMENTS INVOLVED IN ALL KINDS OF CONFLICTING INTERESTS AND FAVORING LOCAL POWER PLANTS REFUSING TO BUY CHEAPER POWER FROM OTHER SOURCES
• WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO EXISTING BOT, JV AND ALIKE? GOVERNMENT TRIES TO "GIVE ASSURANCES" BUT …
• MANY POWER STATIONS WORKING BELOW CAPACITY AND LOSING MONEY

THE PLAYERS

• MINISTRY OF POWER CANCELLED IN 1998 REGULATORY ISSUES: STATE ECONOMIC AND TRADE COMMISSION, STATE DEVELOPMENT PLANNING COMMISSION, STATE POWER CORPORATION
• STATE POWER CORPORATION (1997)
• INSTALLED CAPACITY: 150 GW (1999)
• ELECTRICITY SOLD: 798.9 TWH (1999)
• HUANENG POWER INTERNATIONAL AND CHINA HUANENG GROUP (SPC SUBSIDIARY)
• BEIJING DATANG POWER
• EDF AND MANY OTHER IPP

THERMAL (COAL, OIL, GAS) (SEE ATTACHED LISTS)

• AVERAGE HOURS OF USE FOR THERMAL UNITS: GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM OVER 5,000 (1980) TO UNDER 4,500 AFTER 1998
• MIX OF THERMAL POWER GENERATING UNITS (1999)

900MW: 0.8%
320-362.5: 7.18%
200-210: 16.80%
500-660 MW: 5.9%
250-300: 22.02%
<199MW: 47.3%

• NET COAL CONSUMPTION RATE: FROM NEAR 450 g/kWh TO JUST OVER 400 g/KWh in 1999
• PROVEN COAL RESERVES: 39% IN THE WEST
• COAL PRODUCTION 1999: 1,023 BILLION TON - IN 10 MONTHS (2000): 47.9 MILLION TON EXPORTED
• END 1999: 31,000 SMALL COAL MINES CLOSED
• HUGE COAL LIQUEFACTION PROJECTS PLANNED
• SEVERAL SUPERCRITICAL UNITS (RUSSIA. JAPAN, GERMANY) OF 300, 600 AND 900 TO 1,000 MW
• 40 GW OF SMALL UNITS (<50 MW), 14 GW TO BE DECOMMISSIONED BY 2004
• IMPORTANT EFFORTS TO IMPROVE AND UPGRADE OTHER PLANTS TO INCREASE EFFICIENCY AND REDUCE POLLUTION - CIRCULATING FLUIDIZED BED BOILERS, DESULPHURIZATION, …
• IMPORT OF OIL IN CHINA: 70 MILLION TON IN 2000 - ESTIMATED 180 MILLION TON BY 2015
• DEMAND OF OIL: 189 M.T. IN 1999 - 360 M.T. IN 2015
• OIL IMPORT BILL: HUGE INCREASE DUE TO RAISING OIL PRICES
• GROWTH OF INCINERATION PLANTS (TYPICAL: 1,500 TO 2,000 TON/DAY OF GARBAGE)
• SEVERAL COAL-BED METHANE PROJECTS (ANHUI, SHANXI, JIANGXI) WITH FOREIGN COMPANIES

HYDROPOWER

• INSTALLED CAPACITY END 1999: 73 GW - THIRD WORLDWIDE
• INSTALLED CAPACITY IS ONLY 19% OF TOTAL EXPLOITABLE RESOURCES
• BULK OF RESOURCES IS IN THE SOUTHWEST - THE REGION NOW RECEIVING ATTENTION
• PUMPED STORAGE PLANTS AND MAIN HYDRO PLANTS: SEE ATTACHED LISTS
• OVER 80,000 DAMS AND RESERVOIRS - OVER 30,000 NEED REPAIRS
• THREE GORGES

STARTED 1993, US$ 7.1 BILLION SPENT TILL END 2000
TOTAL COST COULD BE FAR OVER US$ 24.5 BILLION?
RESETTLEMENT OF 1.3 MILLION PEOPLE
ABB+ALSTOM, VOITH HYDRO+GE+SIEMENS, DONGFANG, ABB (TRANSMISSION)
INITIAL 14 UNITS 700 MW (SUPERVISION: EDF) - 9,800 MW - START OF OPERATION: 2003
DAM 185 M HIGH - 1,983 M LONG - 18,200 MW PLANNED FOR 2009 - 26 UNITS
MAX. FINAL 32 UNITS - TOTAL 22.4 GW?
CORRUPTION - SEDIMENTATION - SECURITY - ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT: ???

• AFTER THREE GORGES AND WITH ITS PROCEEDS: TWO OTHER PLANTS PLANNED ON JINSHA RIVER (XILUODU - XIANGJIABA) THAT WILL GENERATE EVEN MORE: 75 GW COMBINED. CONSTRUCTION TO START AFTER 2003.

NUCLEAR

• TOTAL OF ABOVE: 8.5 GW
• PLANNED:
  SHANDONG HAIYANG - 2 X 1,000 MW (START 2003?) - US$ 3 BILLION
  "DAY BAY III" - ANNOUNCEMENT "EXPECTED": LET'S SEE...
• "APPROPRIATE" USE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY ADVOCATED BUT THE 10TH YEAR PLAN COULD BRING SOME MORE PROJECTS: LET'S SEE ...
• TIANWAN (LIANYUGANG-JIANGSU). MAIN EQUIPMENT FROM ST-PETERSBURG. INITIAL INVESTMENT: US$ 3.2 BILLION. ATOMENERGOPROYEKT INSTITUTE. TYPE: VVER-1000/TYPE91. IVO POWER ENGINEERING LTD (FINLAND): CONSULTANT
• CHINA EXPORTED 300 MW CHASHMA PLANT TO PAKISTAN
• TARGET: 75% TO BE LOCALLY MADE IN FIVE YEARS - CNP1000 PLAN ("CHINA NUCLEAR POWER PLANT")
• QINSHAN I: SHUT DOWN "QUIETLY" IN 1998 DUE TO LEAKS (DESIGN FLAW). REPAIRED WITH FOREIGN HELP. REASON: PIPES BOLTED INSTEAD OF WELDED. RESTARTED IN 1999. THOUGH "CHINESE" IT HAS JAPANESE, GERMAN AND FRENCH EQUIPMENT
• DAYA BAY & LINGAO: FRAMATOME - ALSTOM - EDF, ALL PRESENT IN CHINA SINCE LONG WITH MANY JV AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFERS, SUBCONTRACTING AND COOPERATION AGREEMENTS
• QINSHAN I AND II: FRAMATOME AND EDF ALSO INVOLVED
• SIEMENS: EXCEPT INSTRUMENTATION & CONTROL FOR TIANWAN: OUTSIDE PLAYER

WIND POWER

• END 1999: 24 WIND POWER FARMS WITH TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY OF 268 MW
• CAPACITY AT END 2005 TO REACH 1.5 GW
• MAINLY IN MONGOLIA, TIBET, XINJIANG UYGUR, GANSU
• LARGEST ONE IN XINJIANG - TOTAL 57.5 MW
• BIGGEST WIND FARM PLANNED: 100 MW, TO BE TENDERED IN THE NEXT YEARS AS A PROTOTYPE OF MORE SIMILAR FARMS TO BE SET UP - FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOREIGN COMPANIES
• "CHINA BRIGHT PROJECT": PROMOTE WIND POWER IN WESTERN REGIONS (1999)
• SEVERAL NEW PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION, INCLUDING JILIN, SHANDONG, GANSU

GAS

• INCREASE OF THE USE OF GAS FOR ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION:
      23% OF GAS PRODUCTION TO BE USED FOR ELECTRICITY IN 2005 AND 30% IN 2010
      GAS POWERED GENERATION TO REPRESENT ABOUT 10% OF TOTAL CAPACITY IN 5
      TO 7 YEARS - NOW 2%
• HUGE PROJECTS UNDER WAY TO TRANSPORT NATURAL GAS
• "WEST-EAST GAS PIPELINE PROJECT" (NATURAL GAS):
          FROM TARIM AND CHANGQING GAS FIELDS (XINJIANG, GANSU, …) IN THE WEST UP
          UP TO SHANGHAI - LEADER IS PETROCHINA
          TWO PARALLEL PIPELINES OF 4,200 KM OF 1.5 METER
          12 BILLION CUBIC METER DESIGN CAPACITY/YEAR PER PIPELINE
          1ST PREQUALIFICATION RESULTS JUST ANNOUNCED: 19 COMPANIES-
          IN MAY TO BE 7
          CONSTRUCTION TO START END 2001, FIRST PART IN OPERATION IN 2003,
          COMPLETION IN 2005
          TOTAL INITIATION COST AT LEAST US$ 6 BILLION; FINAL COST US$ 14.5 BILLION RATE
          OF RETURN SAID TO BE 12% BUT DOUBTS EXIST. 8 TO 10 YEARS TO RECOVER
          THAT INVESTMENT
• MANY PROJECTS PLANNED FOR GAS-FIRED POWER PLANTS
• OTHER BIG CONSUMERS: CHEMICAL INDUSTRY, INDUSTRIAL FUEL AND RESIDENTIAL USE
• GAS RESERVES IN EAST CHINA SEA: STILL HUGE RESERVES REMAIN TO BE TAPPED
• GUANGDONG LNG PROJECT (SHENZHEN): OVERALL PLAN FINISHED AFTER FIERCE COMPETITION FOR SELECTION WITH EAST CHINA:
          TOTAL INVESTMENT 30 BILLION YUAN
          RECEIVING STATION (IMPORTED LNG), GAS MAIN PIPING (397.1 KM), CITY GAS
          PIPELINES
          GAS-FIRED POWER PLANTS (2000MW)
          FIRST PHASE 3 MILLION TON/YEAR (2004-2005)
          FOUR MULTINATIONAL SHORTLISTED (BP AMOCO, EXXON MOBIL, ROYAL DUTCH
          SHELL, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM + BHP) - FINAL AWARD TO BP AMOCO

POWER & TRANSMISSION NETWORKS

• "7 TRANS-REGIONAL POWER NETWORKS" PLUS OTHERS - 16 POWER GRIDS
• EAST CHINA, NORTH CHINA AND CENTRAL CHINA NETWORKS: OVER 40 GW EACH
• THE FUTURE (2010), 3 MAJOR INTERCONNECTED POWER NETWORKS:
          NORTH PART (NORTH, NORTHEAST, NORTHWEST, SHANDONG)
          CENTRAL PART (CENTRAL, EAST, SICHUAN/CHONGQING, FUJIAN)
          SOUTH (GUANGDONG, GUANXI, YUNNAN, GUIZHOU, HONG KONG, MACAO)
• 1989: FIRST HVDC COMMISSIONED, GEZHOUBA - SHANGHAI, 500 KVDC;
  TIANSHENQIAO - GUANGDONG 2ND HVDC
• THREE GORGES - SHANGHAI: HVDC LINE (3,000 MW), 1200 KM - ABB
• COMMISSIONED IN 1999:
          3,057 KM OF 500 KV TRANSMISSION LINES
          757.35 KM OF 330 KV TRANSMISSION LINES
          11,352 MVA OF 500 KV SUBSTATIONS
          2,070 MVA OF 300 KV SUBSTATIONS
• TILL END 2001: US$ 22.9 BILLION SPENT ON UPGRADING RURAL GRIDS
• DISTRIBUTION LINES (LOW VOLTAGE) LINES COMMISSIONED IN 1999: 365,907 KM
• LOW VOLTAGE SUBSTATIONS COMMISSIONED IN 1999: 55,670 MVA
• SHANGHAI: 500 KM OF OVERHEAD WIRES AND 20,000 ROADSIDE POLES TO BE REMOVED IN 2001 (COST: US$ 12 MILLION); TOTAL TO BE BURIED OVER 5 YEARS: 5,800 KM. TOTAL COST INCLUDING TELECOM CABLES: US$ 241 MILLION FOR 30,000 KM OF CABLE.

FOREIGN PARTICIPATION - EQUIPMENT SUPPLIERS

• CHINA HAS BASICALLY 3 SUPPLIERS OF LARGE POWER GENERATION EQUIPMENT: SHANGHAI, HARBIN (HEILONGJIANG), DONGFANG (SICHUAN)
• MOST INTERNATIONAL EQUIPMENT & SERVICE SUPPLIERS HAVE LOCAL OPERATIONS, MOSTLY IN JV FORM - YES, TRACTEBEL, CMI ARE THERE!
• IF SOME COMPANY ISN'T THERE YET - PROBABLY "VERY DIFFICULT" TO ENTER (E.G. TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION)
• ALL MAIN INTERNATIONAL POWER OPERATORS MADE CONTACT OR ARE PRESENT IN CHINA
• EDF: WELL ESTABLISHED, ACTIVE IN TRAINING, CONSULTING, GENERATION PROJECTS
• NUCLEAR: EITHER FRENCH OR CANADIAN OR RUSSIAN
• FRANCE WELL ORGANIZED FOR NUCLEAR WITH EDF AS LEADER - COMMON INTEREST GROUP FOR SMALL & MEDIUM ENTERPRISES - "PFCE"
• IF BELGIAN COMPANIES WANT TO JOIN THE NUCLEAR PROJECTS: PROBABLY BEST THROUGH THE FRENCH BACKDOOR..
• USA AND JAPAN STILL BATTLING TO GET MAJOR PROJECT BUT …
• AGREEMENT WESTINGHOUSE-MITSUBISHI HEAVY INDUSTRIES-GNS(SPAIN) WITH SHANGHAI NUCLEAR ENGINEERING RESEARCH & DESIGN INSTITUTE FOR CAP600, A CHINA VERSION OF THE AP600 (PWR). BUT…
• GE TEAMED UP WITH HITACHI AND TOSHIBA FOR BWR (BOILING WATER REACTOR) BUT …
• SHANGHAI ELECTRIC GROUP: TO DEVELOP 1000 MW GENERATORS FOR NUCLEAR PLANTS
• THERMAL: NO MORE IMPORTS OF NORMAL SMALL UNITS (<600 MW) (EXCEPT GAS TURBINES AND SPECIAL TECHNOLOGIES)
• RETURN ON POWER GENERATION: QUESTIONABLE?? BUT SEVERAL BOT/JV/COOPERATIONS…
• SEE TABLE ATTACHED ON FOREIGN INVESTMENT
  â INTERESTING AREAS ARE STILL IN AREAS RELATED TO NEW AND CLEAN ENERGY, SPECIALIZED COMPONENTS - BUT EVERYBODY HAS BEEN THERE ALREADY…

ATTACHMENTS (not included here)

1.     Installed capacity and annual generation (end of 1999)
2.     Length of overhead transmission lines and number of transformers and circuit breakers
3.     China's Electricity Consumption and its Structure (1987-1998)
4.     Installed capacity & electricity generation of China (1980-2000)
5.     Foreign funded power project by type (end 1997)
6.     More recent foreign-funded projects
7.     New gas-fired power projects identified:
8.     Major power plants with capacity of 1000MW and above by the end of 1999
9.     Distribution of Hydropower Reserves
10.   Pumped Storage (part)

(some MAPS - taken out for editing)

The following text was distributed as a last-minute update to the presentation

Update: March 2001
(US$ = 8.3 RMB¥)

Some basic figures for 2000

• GDP topped US$ 1,000 billion (+ 8%)
• officially employed: 711.5 (212.74 in urban areas)
• foreign trade: US$ 474.3 billion (exports: US$ 249.2 billion)
• trade surplus: US$ 24.1 billion (down US$ 5.1 billion)
• USA data: China is largest contributor to the USA trade deficit: bilateral trade gap of US$ 83.8 billion (up from 68.7 billion); taking away the exports to the USA, China has a trade deficit with the rest of the world. Official Chinese figures: total bilateral trade is US$ 74.5 billion
• used Foreign Direct Foreign Investment: US$ 40.77 billion (+ 0.93%)
• foreign reserves at yearend: US$ 165.6 billion (increase of US$ 10.9 billion) total amount of public debt: 14% of GDP - far below the "danger level of 20%" (Zhu Rongji)
• inflation (CPI): 0.4%
• per capita net rural income/year: US$ 272
• per capita disposable urban income/year: US$ 759
• production figures - % increase over 1999
  - raw coal - 1.2%
  - gasoline 12.8%
  - natural gas 9.4%
  - crude oil 1.9%
  - processed oil 15.2%
  - power generation 10.7%

Planned for 2001 - trends

• export growth slowing down - 0.8% in Jan. 2001, slowest in 19 months; anyway Jan/Feb 2001 went up 14.5% (strong pick-up in Feb. 2001) compared to one year earlier; FDI over the same period increased by 47.1% to US$ 9.2 billion (compare that to India - less than 2.5 billion in one full year
•  CPI in January: + 1.5% (Jan 2000) - same as December and biggest in 3 years
• central & local governments to spend 1.74 trillion Yuan
•  central & local governments to take in 1.48 trillion Yuan in taxes & other revenue
•  renewed government spending resulting in central deficit of US$ 31.28 billion (2.7% of GDP - fairly modest)
• relatively low level of total government debt - about 30% of GDP (different figure!); allows higher spending but will make the task more difficult to clear backlog of non-performing loans; could also undercut market reform and long-term growth

China's 10th Five-Year Plan (2001-2005)

• Economy to grow by 7% per year - previous FYP: 8.3% average per year
• By 2005 GDP to reach US$ 1.5 trillion - per capita GDP: RMB¥ 9,400
• the economy (GDP), now US$ 1 trillion, to double by 2010
• foreign trade by 2005: US$ 680 billion
•  foreign investment: US$ 289.4 billion used in 9th FYP
•  Foreign Direct Investment/year planned: US$ 40 billion
• rural labor force estimated at 500 million (other figures: 900 million...) - need for continues subsidies while the force is more twice too high
• To issue US$ 18 billion in Treasury bonds for the development of the Western regions - while economic viability of many projects is doubtful
• SOE: estimated 14 million workers shed in past two years and another 5 million expected this year (2001)
• urban unemployment estimated at 10% in 2000 - 3 times more than in 1996; could increase to 15% with TWO and further reform
• generally government continues to support retreat from the private sector as long as "acceptable".
• Population growth not to exceed 0.9% - population in 2005: max. 1.33 billion
• Per-capita housing floor space in the cities: 22 m2 by 2005
• Cable TV available for 40% of Chinese families by 2005

Nuclear Power

• Experimental fast neutron breeder reactor, 100 times more efficient than mainstream nuclear plants in producing nuclear fuel to be completed by 2005. The reactor will turn uranium 238 into nuclear fuel.
• New nuclear power plants under planning and subject to final approval:
• "Daya Bay III" (Guangdong): 2 units of 1,000 MW - US$ 2.4 billion
• Yangjiang Plant (Guangdong) - 6 units of 1,000 MW - US$ 8.5 billion
• Haiyang Plant (Shandong) - 2 units of 1,000 MW - US$ 3 billion
• Sanmen Plant (Zhejiang) - 2 units of 1,000 MW
  Guangdong seems to be in a best position

West-to East Energy Projects - part of the "Go West" promotion

• Power projects with combined capacity of 29,200 MW to be built in 12 western China provinces and regions in the 12th FYP, representing 37.4% of China's total new projects.
• Hydropower will represent 14,840 MW
• Preferential policies for taxation and investment
• Transport 10,000 MW from Western China to Guangdong Province
• The power projects will be the foundation for the West-to-East power transmission project
• US$ 14.5 billion gas pipeline West-East for 12 billion cubic meters of natural gas

   

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